Change the Polling Methods

Every election, in recent years, has plagued the innocent voters with phone call after phone call, and door-to-door volunteer after volunteer. People hate these phone calls, but they work. Volunteers at the other end of the phones make so many voter contacts, that by election day, the people they’ve called are extremely likely to vote and vote for the candidate the volunteer has been calling for. Campaigns use these phone calls to perform internal polls, convince undecided voters, and get out the vote.

All campaigns base their campaign operation on their own internal polling. These polls determine what ads to place and where. These polls determine the official campaign visits and most importantly- they analyze their prospects in a state or region. Since the use of internal polls to determine prospects has taken over in recent elections, there is major work to be done with the Republican Polling Methods as they showed major leads for Governor Romney in Ohio, Florida, and the other swing states.

Project ORCA was a fabulous idea, although it had many major problems. Not only did the system crash on election day, but many and most polling sites were not being served by volunteers with access to the system. This project is brilliant and must be utilized in 2016′s Presidential elections, but instead of utilizing it on just election day (As this recent one had), it needs to be expanded into early voting as to allow for this system to essentially take over as the newest GOTV method.

Project ORCA also needs to be properly tested and enhanced, which did not happen this election cycle. By expanding it into early voting, it has ample time for repairs to be made need-be, and Project ORCA would be able to run smoothly on election day. We can also enhance Project ORCA by providing a larger voter fraud prevention program, which it had in this election, but was unproductive to our efforts.

There must be volunteers with Project ORCA access at every polling site in every swing state in the nation. We can do this be continuing to organize Project ORCA further in advance, and move volunteers from the phone banks and into the polling sites with Project ORCA capabilities. We recruited volunteers to go door-to-door and make phone calls, but we must also be recruiting volunteers to staff the polling sites.

If we extended Project ORCA into early voting, it would no longer serve as the election day GOTV operation, but the early voting GOTV operation. It would be far more influential and productive if it were implemented into early voting, and could be further influential if this GOTV operation was also extended into absentee voting, which is just as important. If we could take the lead in early voting, we would have won the election well before election day due to our massive advantage on the actual day.

We must also change our election prediction models. We used a heavily Republican turnout model, with limited minority turnout, in this recent election. This was an extremely plausible model, and was the model most pundits and pollsters predicted. We based our advertising and campaign visits on this one model, and the Democrats’ did the same thing, but with their own model. Our model had Governor Romney considerably ahead in Florida, Virginia, and New Hampshire, as did the pre-election day polls.

We only used one model to determine our advertising and campaign visits. When I say advertising, I mean the type of ads, the people that see the ads, the timing of the ads, and the money spent on these ads. Advertising includes TV and radio ads, mailers, billboards, and social media targeting. We were confident with our one model, and we based all of our advertising on it’s results. But in the future, in 2016, we need to expand to using three different comprehensive voter turnout models.

The first model needs to be the ideal model, the one we would prefer, which was the one used in this recent election. The second model needs to be the model that the Democratic party is using, and the third model needs to be the one in the middle, between the Republican and Democratic party models. Each victory center will operate one model at a time, with every model being operated equally. This rotation based system will offer extremely valuable polling data for each prediction model.

We then need to analyze and interpret each of the three models, and combine this analysis. If we combined the results of the three models into one, we would have a comprehensive and fundamental estimated voter turnout plan, and the actual turnout should mirror this combination model nearly perfectly. We could then use this combination model to determine our advertising and campaign visits based on the probability that either our model, the Democrats’ model, or the independent model will be the most accurate one on election day.

After we instill the changed polling methods and the expanded, repaired, and enhanced Project ORCA, 2016′s elections will be completely different, and we will have far exceeded the means to win.

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5 comments

  1. A couple of changes to what you have here is that you only mention ORCA. We need a three pronged approach; educating voters, party cohesiveness and ORCA/GOTV program. The programs need to start now with education of voters.

    I really hate that the parties have to “go out and get” the American voters. So many Americans don’t see it as a civic duty to be an informed voter. That said, we live in the real world and that is what many voters have come to expect.

    #1 Education: So, lets start in elementary schools and teach civic duty to our children, teach history of our electorate and how it works. This will hopefully pull in some of the parents. How can we teach the young adults and here Ron Paul did a tremendous job. What about businesses and we saw a little of this last election showing employees how legislation affects there decisions. Free simplistic courses on general knowledge items like economics, history, and civics with links to more in depth courses. Get more of the entertainment field involved in the presentation of these topics for a more general appeal.

    #2 Party cohesiveness: Better primaries with less drawn out debates. The many that we had was ridiculous and harmful. Convention earlier in the year. Primaries need to be POSITIVE. Build up the whole party and see who comes out to lead. All the individual groups need to get together and find a base for the party such as fiscal conservatism, smaller government and emphasis on local governance. Acknowledge that the groups have differing views and that differing views are our DIVERSITY.

    #3 GOTV using ORCA starting now. Every three months or so adding a single issue to campaign on and how the party would govern on that issue. Contacting the people and keeping the data with ORCA. The mid term elections will help to refine this. Many bloggers can help here with keeping up on the issues and helping to form a consensus.

    1. clb2012now,
      Teachers unions will allow conservatives access to elementary school children over their dead bodies. I wish that weren’t so, but it is. I agree that education is crucial, and many of us bloggers are redoubling our efforts to find ways to reach out to persuadable folks by explaining conservatism better than people like Romney and Akin did. (After the election, Charles Krauthammer said that conservatism was like a second language to Romney.) We need to go beyond just explaining it…we need to show how it’s relevant and advantageous to the skeptical swing voters that are so easily bedazzled by the sweet-talkin’ statists. 50-something folks like me are relying on younger folks like you and Ryan to make the philosophy “hip” for your generation that inherently doesn’t allow themselves to accept that their parents’ traditional values are right.
      - Jeff

  2. Very thoughtful blog Ryan. I agree 100%. The Dem gotv is far superior than ours and we want to compete in the future, we have a lot of work to do. And it should have started Nov 7

  3. Oh wow, neccessaryandpropergovt, I come off as young? I’m 50 and a grandma! Age is only a number and you define it yourself!

    1. clb2012now,
      I agree that “age is only a number and you define it yourself.” You wrote enthusiastically and vibrantly.
      - Jeff

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